Annual growth in apartment prices to stop at the end of the year

The Ober-Haus Apartment Price Index (OHBI) in Lithuania, which records changes in apartment prices in five major Lithuanian cities (Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipėda, Šiauliai and Panevėžys), increased by 0.4% in August 2023 (the price index in July 2023 increased by 0.3%). The apartment prices in the major cities of Lithuania have increased by 4.9% over the last 12 months (the annual growth in July 2023 was 6.7%)

In August 2023, apartment sales prices in Vilnius, Klaipėda, Šiauliai and Panevėžys increased by 0.5%,  0.4%, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively and the average price per square meter in these cities was EUR 2,571 (+14 EUR/sqm), EUR 1.610 (+7 EUR/sqm), EUR 1,100 (+7 EUR/sqm) and EUR 1,074 +8 Eur/sqm). In Kaunas, apartment sales prices decreased by 0.2% and the average price per square meter stood at EUR 1,726 (-3 EUR/sqm).

Apartment prices rose year-on-year in August 2023 in all major cities of the country: 5.1% – in Vilnius, 5.3% – in Kaunas, 3.5% – in Klaipėda, 5.2% – in Šiauliai and 3.6% – in Panevėžys.

“Following the disappointing market activity indicators recorded in July this year, in August an increase in the number of apartment sales transactions was recorded in Lithuania. According to the State Enterprise Centre of Registers, in August 2023, compared to July 2023, almost 20% more older apartments were purchased in Lithuania. However, in August this year, compared to the same month last year, 6% less older apartments were purchased in Lithuania (10% more in Panevėžys, 6% more in Vilnius, 3% less in Kaunas, 15% less in Klaipėda and 30% less in Šiauliai).

Meanwhile, in the primary market, overall apartment sales volumes remain volatile. Although developers in the country’s major cities sold more apartments in August than in July, overall volumes remain modest by historical standards. According to Ober-Haus, in January-August this year, compared to the average for 2022, a decrease in sales volumes recorded in Vilnius stood at 17%, in Kaunas – 29% and in Klaipėda – 22%.

Despite the subdued and largely stagnant housing market activity, apartment prices continue to stay record high. Although slight changes in sales prices have been recorded this year, the overall price level in almost all the country’s major cities is now at an all-time high. For example, since the previous price peak in the country’s major cities at the end of 2007 or the beginning of 2008, prices are now 29.6% higher in Vilnius, 16.1% higher in Kaunas, 7.7% higher in Panevėžys and 5.4% higher in Šiauliai. Klaipėda is the only major city that has not yet reached the level of prices that was 15 years ago. Currently, the overall level of apartment sales prices in Klaipėda is 10.8% lower than that in 2H 2007. Looking at this year’s price dynamics (minor positive and negative price changes), it can be essentially noted that home prices have reached their peak in the current cycle of very rapid price growth. It is likely that the housing market will remain sluggish in the near future and the annual price change, which has been declining for eleven consecutive months, will shrink to zero by the end of this year,” noted Raimondas Reginis, Head of Market Research for the Baltic countries at Ober-Haus.